It has been 10 times for AIA and is mounted most recently until 1SFR prepares its offensive for long monthsIt did exacerbate a diffuse sense of illegitimacyEC which Canal took note with satisfactionYoplait is the third if the submitted offer5 million units sold last year of which 2Resume meets their desire to speak to their accountIt is my duty it is the general interestThis old term seems to become barely audibleOther voices could be heard yesterday to call for government interventionThe OPA are what they were! Usually, managers and investors preferred to focus on prey rather than predators. It is highest... But things have changed for some time. While the balance usually favours the targets, the peculiarity of the current wave of OPA is that predators have excellent performance. The most obvious case is that of Pernod, one year after the acquisition of Allied Domecq, is appreciated by 30.
This enthusiasm for predators clearly contrasts with severe sanctions which companies were exposed to any hope of acquiring the hinge of 2002 and 2003. Investors focused so exclusively on the risks associated with the OPA, fearing possible delays or failures in the integration targets, poor financial surprises (debt, goodwill) or even a long period of under-performance in the stock market.
According the managers interviewed, this shift is quite justified. All argue that global competition, under pressure from countries with low production costs, again urges Western societies to launch external growth operations to achieve productivity and market share gains. However, with exceptionally favourable funding conditions that have created the low rates, the latter proved quickly beneficial for earnings per share. In addition, companies raised significant reserves of cash that many managers consider now better used to finance the growth rather than to increase dividends. As indicated by Olivier Aubenas, Louvre management Delegate General Manager and head of the FCP OPA world, "all the ingredients were combined so that the market is favourable issuers to offer." Not only the majority of the projects had a real industrial sense, but in addition the prices paid were reasonable. Currently the offered premium amounts on average to 13.9 while it hovered around 25 to 30 during the Internet bubble. In addition, the market was sensitive to the fact that operations are mainly conducted in cash rather than by Exchange of securities, which further protects the shareholders of the purchaser against the risks of goodwill. Finally the sharing of roles was more ambiguous than usual with the multiplication of cascading operations. In the space of a few sessions, as Arcelor or Eiffage predators are themselves become targets.
As many managers, considers therefore that the beautiful issuers to offer courses mainly reflected a reclamation of forgotten sectors, rather than a runaway of the market.
But now that the movement of mergers and acquisitions accelerated, managers are more nuanced for future operations. As note Pierre-Alexis Dumont, head of the Oficible CPF in Ofi Asset Management, "at the beginning of the cycle of OPA, the predators conducted operations at reasonable prices that could benefit quickly to their shareholders." But as the purchase price prevarications, predators will have to prove that these operations create value despite more tense valuations. They will also have to bring more of the risks of performance guarantees. On recent offerings, the market has been much less euphoric. Bayer, for example, fell after the announcement of the acquisition of Schering. Similarly, BASF has under-performed index of chemistry as a result of the offer on American Engelhard.
Pierre-Alexis Dumont took the party to concentrate exclusively on the target on which the added shareholder value is more tangible, focusing on areas in the phase of concentration such as air transport (with national companies still isolated as Iberia), the defence or finance (with banks and insurance regularly the subject of rumours as Depfa Bank)(Barclays, Standard Chartered, Prudential and Commerzbank).
For its part, Guillaume Chieusse, Manager of FCP Orsay Special Situations in the d'Orsay Bank, was also given priority to targets. "Distribution of supply between securities and currency operations can increase earnings per share of the purchaser although markets have mounted because the predators themselves is are revalued, considers." But, in General, I prefer likely to target the subject of a significant offer in cash, as it has been the case on AMB Generali or Elior.
Rule of thumb step
He insists there still on the tangible aspect for the shareholder, whether that offer at least a firm price, generally floor, for the target, while the appreciation of the predator is part of a logic of anticipation.
"Among the attractive targets, including isolated Gamesa, the designer of wind farms." "Title deals around sixteen times the 2006 profits and has expertise and important market share that might be of interest to major players such as General Electric, but also Areva, to which it would position itself in this promising sector", considering.
However, Emmanuel Pineau, Manager in Tocqueville, argues that higher market prices could curb the buyback of minority interests. It takes for example Allianz and its French subsidiary AGF. "Mickael Diekman, its CEO, repeat the operation will take place by Exchange of securities." And given the AGF path, it is likely that the course of Allianz will continue to advance until the offer is launched. In the meantime, the appreciation potential me greater on the parent, which is among others recover Dresdner, on its subsidiary, which is more akin to an "obligation on insurance", since it will move at the pace of its sector while paying generous dividends.
So far, it does not RTL buys out the minority of M6 or Bouygues do the same with TF1, but it would mean that the Broadcasting Act is evolving in advance. Despite a more difficult year, the two television channels emerged of risk-taking important that the parent companies are up to now go back through dividends, but that might justify an integration of their subsidiary. "He did not rule of thumb to determine if it is better to rely on a target or a predator, he argued. The case by case basis, it seems as relevant on BNP Paribas (rather than BNL) than to position themselves on targets such as Dexia or Depfa Bank. In my view, in the case of banks, divide is especially called to evolve based on interest rates. If they go back, no doubt, the predators will be penalized because credit conditions are less favourable. Nevertheless an increase would not necessarily be to the benefit of the target as offered premiums will be certainly much less generous.
