5 million units since its launch in AprilIn theory the obstacles are not financialWe have achieved much more quickly than expectedAnd even live together I want to add nowShe chooses therefore Sciences po and the ENAThe great promise for next summer's tax reform should be to sum zeroIt is a genuine national network that displays with real valuesIt is better to present it on a mannequinThe Government is also consideringt he develop new depositsThirty years later found bitter unhappyWhat can we expect from the Summit of Cancun
Everyone was so afraid to miss this new step that displayed political expectations are extremely modest. In Copenhagen, countries have made proposals on the table but no one spoke the same language. Since views marked a strong decline, policy no longer have the sense that they will be judged on this issue. The major issue will be back interest to Governments to cooperate and especially to revive the process.
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Going on to a questioning of the UN system
Some play with the idea that the bilateral negotiations between countries or smaller structures, such as the G20, will become privileged forums of Exchange on the issue of climate. A part of Indian leaders are particularly convinced. The problem is that club Dynamics does not necessarily lead to solutions to problems. The g-20 leaders especially sights the management of the crisis and developments in the economy's medium-term. The climate is seen as a problem more and not as an opportunity. But it is a fact, the old world died in Copenhagen and there was more dominant power that can organize a consensus around his visions. But the system worked on this basis, including during the cold war. The new world is not yet stabilized G20 without organized multipolar system.
How get out of the rut
There is no miracle solution. In the current context, Cancun should be understood as a stage. It must nevertheless obtain absolutely positive signals. Subjects were already far advanced in Copenhagen: role of the forest, funding for the developing countries, adaptation to climate change. Some countries such as the Bolivia are tempted by a jusqu'au-boutiste strategy, and we feel, in addition, a stiffening of the position of Africa who refuses a partial agreement. This continent have much to gain by implementing mechanisms for forest carbon emissions reduction. The only way to rebuild the consensus is to set a horizon in 2050, not only in 2020, as it had been decided in the European energy-climate package. Since April, the Commission has set up a reflection group on this topic. Showing concretely what is possible, she hopes to convince economic circles to act and recreate a coalition proclimat in Europe.
That becomes the Kyoto Protocol
Legally, a protocol does not die. First period, Governments are no longer subject to any encrypted obligation and face no penalty. In trying to accept for the West to engage again, Germans and French hope to revive the process. But this position is not shared by all Europeans, Italians and poles. For Europe there is a true "off trade". Thus, in the light of the internal objections, to unilaterally engage in a second period Kyoto on the basis of reduction of emissions in 2020 by 20, mean bury the debate on the move to 30 reduction by 2020. Or 20 in the current conditions of the crisis; This means a status quo and no real transformation of the European economy. The 20 reduction become a conservative goal which makes it very difficult to reduce here 80 by 2050 compared to 1990 emissions.
After the democratic defeat, can the US Government Act
No one knows how the United States will live up to their promise. The rest of the world to muddle through without Washington during the coming two years and, as in the agreement which has just passed to Nagoya at the convention on biodiversity, may be move forward without them for the moment. But do not despair, 61.1 of California voters have refused the "23 proposal" which proposed to send California climate policy to oblivion. The battle returned to the level of States, even if the Obama administration will also try to play up the capacity of federal regulation. We see even agreements between California and Chinese cities.
