Behind meat and fish suffer no criticism4 according to Médiamétrie and Italy 12Gattégno readers know humour of grave diggerAppeal to children is also important that seduce adultsThe followup to this debate remain unclearrecovery will be long and painful but it will bear its fruitBut this rally has been of short durationIt put the system at the service of employmentIt is far time curved neck and steal wordsA dream that in General is only a chimeraThe worsening of the situation of the economy in November was brutal. According to data published Friday by Insee, manufacturing industry gave 3.1 compared to October, itself revised down, 4.4. If the activity is stabilizing in December, the manufacturing sector will be transferred 7.3 in the fourth quarter, with a level of production to that of 1999. External trade, has accused a new monthly deficit of EUR 6.25 billion. It is slightly reduced by the decline in oil prices, but note the customs, "the economic slowdown now extends to imports." Over three months, the latter gave 3.1 over the previous three months. Exports are shrinking of 7.3 over the same period. The trade deficit reached EUR 57.5 million over 12 months.
Value added of the manufacturing sector accounting for about 15 of GDP, Insee considers that there is now "a high risk that the decline in GDP in the fourth quarter is stronger" than expected in December ( 0.8). Others are more direct: "the decline may reach 1.2 ", anticipates Pierre - Olivier Beffy, Exane. For Karine Berger, Euler Hermes SFAC, it will be "clearly around 1 ". Morgan Stanley does not 1.5. The deepening of industrial recession is due, in large part, to the automotive sector, which has increased production shutdowns. Representing 12 of the manufacturing industry, activity lost 8.1 per cent in November, after 22.2 in October. Over one year, the production of cars thus gives 36. Established 100 in 2000, the production index returned to... 66.
Technical expected rebound
"The decline in production is much stronger than what industrial surveys suggested." They stopped production and responded to the request in déstockant, with probably a bit of overreaction. "Our scenario is therefore focused on fourth-quarter adjustment", analyses the entourage of the economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, who is betting that with standardized inventory (see below) the industry will recover to produce. If a technical rebound is almost guaranteed in the first quarter, car production resumed remains very moderate in view of the recent announcements of technical unemployment.
In November, also notes the Insee, the bulk of industrial degradation is of intermediate goods, that weighs more heavy in the economy. (Steel, chemistry ) are trained in their fall by the automobile, but also suffer from a more general movement. "German exports fell by 10 in November, there is therefore a considerable slowdown in world trade", says Eric Dubois, head of the Department of the environment in the Insee.
France, "the contraction of exports of intermediate goods, initially focused on the steel industry, extends in November to organic chemistry and electrical components", indicate the customs, on the other hand note resistance of Aeronautics and the pharmacy.
"In view of the geographical destination of our exports, we are paying very expensive the slowdown in the European Union, that concentrates approximately 65 of our sales abroad", responds the entourage of the Secretary of State for international trade, Anne-Marie Idrac. "Our four major markets Germany, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom are in recession." Two scenarios are now possible, Karine Berger j.a.: "rebound or deindustrialization." But for the automotive sector, there will be no resumption before the middle of this year and this will probably be too late for some production lines.
