The pole is now 75 members against 55 in 2007Producers are still poor when prices fallIf the principles are clear the reality is perhaps lessBeijing could consider worst case scenarioThe time is the controlled sophisticationThe global gas market became a buyer marketThe concept of deferred salary must be assessed in this light I will table an amendment to this effectRuined by his manager and companion read the view at pThe recession has put an end to this state of affairsFinancial markets rustle before the first signs of economic recovery in the world. More and more investors build on a strong rebound in China, then in the United States and in Europe and in the rest of the world finally. Even disastrous statistics in the last two quarters discourage not the most optimistic. The harsher the fall, stronger will be the rebound, think even some economists.
Perhaps are they right. But what will the recovery when the page of the crisis will be tour Will the new "normal" be similar to that of the years of strong growth from 2002 to 2007 It is difficult to believe that the United States and China, the main drivers of growth for 20 years, will be able to avoid having a much lower than growth of before the crisis.
In the US, the epicentre of the crisis and still the largest economy in the world, the financial sector, in the best of all possible worlds, leaves decreased and more heavily regulated. Which, according to some economists, is not worrisome because the United States experienced rapid growth in the years 1950-1960, despite a relatively regulated banking system. Why not again
Of course! But the financial sector after the second world war did not support an economy also diversified and sophisticated than today ' today. If the authorities reverse regulatory, can we be sure that they will do the same to the income policy The consumption of households in America, the main force behind global growth is forecast to decrease within the fall of the housing market, rising unemployment and the decline of the capitalization of pension funds. During the years of boom, consumption accounted for more than 70 of the GDP. After the crisis, it could represent only 60.
Do not, nor forget the deep political change to be held in America. Tired of growth at any price, voters attach more attention to the environment, health and income inequality. But these laudable objectives will be expensive, especially in a period of huge budget deficits sunk to fight against the economic crisis. An increase in taxes and regulatory pressure can not be good for growth.
Of course, there is room for manoeuvre in public finances in being more effective, including in such areas as education and health. But these economies are sufficient to offset the burden of a State become heavier One hopes. And the administration of Barack Obama is a radius of spring after the hypnotic paralysis of the Bush-Cheney years.
But Governments are still convinced that the expansion can be largely financed by productivity gains. A dream that, in General, is only a chimera.
The long-term growth of China's slow also. He was sure, before even the financial crisis, that China could not continue indefinitely on momentum of an annual growth of 10 or more. Not only the environmental and water problems were, but the rest of the world could not maintain its capacity and its tolerance to absorb all Chinese exports. China was becoming too big.
With the crisis, the necessary readjustment of China's economy to its domestic market became even more urgent. It is true that the Government has managed to support growth by budgetary expenditure and the expansion of credit. But this strategy, necessary risk threatening the fragile balance between private and public sectors. A balance that has, until now, supported the expansion. The return of the State in the economy portends lower growth in the near future with a near certainty.
Europe also faces threats, and not only because the Germany expects a surreal collapse of 6 of its GDP in 2009. But the current crisis will certainly slow down the integration of the countries of Central Europe and Eastern youth populations are the reserve of the most dynamic growth in Europe today.
All regions of the world do not necessarily experience a lower economic expansion over the Decade. If countries such as the Brazil, the India, South Africa and the Russia continue their reforms, emerging markets could well partially compensate for the deficit of growth of major economies. But it is likely that the international monetary fund revised now downward its estimates of global growth, after have regularly reviewed them increased during the years of boom.
Even after the crisis, the growth will be likely weaker than before. This change will be beneficial for the environment, equality of income and stability. Governments have reason to worry about the quality of the expansion, and not only for its speed. But in forecasting of fiscal policy and benefits businesses, Governments and investors will have to adjust to the "new reality" of lower growth.
