The ghetto appears therefore as a collective creationIn consumer goods the renewal of the offer must be permanent and university laboratories ParisI VIII XIIIThis inside Falklands war would last for a year Pressure from the markets could not relaxSecondary LBO market also holds his attentionAnd it leaves no visible trace to the naked eyeGazprom was much criticized not investing enoughHowever the two assets do not have the same profileIn theory it is not subject to income taxThe gap between the two candidates is reduced to 6 points according to the latest Reuters-C-SPAN-released Zogby poll yesterday, to 50 for Obama and 44 for McCain. But on the average of polls conducted by RealClearPolitics, the Illinois Senator retains a comfortable lead of 6.6 points. What is the winner of the vote, tomorrow, the 44th President of the United States will inherit a stricken economy. Most analysts agree to predict a recession of eight to eighteen-month estimates, after the publication of a decline of 0.3 in the third quarter GDP. With an unemployment rate of 6.1 (4.7 a year ago), the collapse of the real estate market, a level of record debt (67.5 of GDP) and a formal budget deficit of $ 455 billion in the process of doubling for 2009, the American economy prepares for difficult days. Excluding the impact of the financial crisis on the morale of households and businesses.
Fall of consumption
"The growth of the economy in this decade will be the lowest since the great depression", has recently predicted the former President of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, calling his greeting a total overhaul of the financial system. In early October, the IMF revised its forecast downward to predict a long and deep recession in the United States. Of course, the decline in GDP in the third quarter remains limited ( 0.3) with the good relative to exports. But the fall of consumption (3.1 in the third quarter ), the largest since 1980, is one of the most disturbing phenomena with the collapse persistent residential real estate ( 19), for the eleventh consecutive quarter. The increase in public debt, which could pass the cap of 70 of GDP in 2009, posed serious uncertainties about the public balance. Even the strength of exports, the single positive point of these last 18 months, began to decline with the rise of the dollar.
Somehow, the financial crisis also marks the relitigation of the monetary policy of Alan Greenspan whose balance is more than challenged. In his "mea culpa" on 23 October the Board of control of the House of representatives, former President of the Federal Reserve acknowledged that prolonged low rates and laissez-faire policy had probably encouraged the formation of the housing bubble. Ironically, the "real economy" and the industry, apart from the automotive sector, had rather resisted well until the last few months. But the impact of the credit crisis has now won all sectors, several large companies (Merck, Yahoo!, Coca-Cola, General Electric... and American Express this weekend) has announced clear cuts in their workforce. The consensus of economists now provides unemployment between 8 and 8.5 in late 2009. Is the 25 unemployment of the great depression of 1929-1933, but some such economists Nouriel Roubini of New York University, project no less a "severe recession from 18 to 24 months.
Larry Summers, schmoozing at the Treasury in case of victory of Barack Obama, the main failure of the Bush years is the stagnation of income and the depletion of class mean in real terms. Forecast of Goldman Sachs, the US deficit should reach $ 800 billion in 2009 (against 455 billion for the last fiscal year close to September 30). "At 3.2 of GDP, remains the lowest of developed countries", stressed, however, Abby Cohen, senior strategist of Goldman Sachs, for which the financing of the health system and the evolution of the debt are much greater concern in the long term. "It is likely that the Wall Street rescue plan will have an impact limited the budget deficit, if not on the debt." "The priority of the next President will be to stabilize the financial system and invest in infrastructure," confirms David Resler, Chief Economist with Nomura in New York.
In this difficult context that is sometimes compared to that of the arrival to power of Franklin Roosevelt, in 1932, in the aftermath of the great depression, the track is close to the new administration. In the event of victory, Barack Obama already suggested he would choose for a Keynesian stimulus in the short term and fiscal consolidation in a second time.
