These figures will appear clearly in the budgetNor let speculation grow without any riskThat of peripheral States reached the summits last weekBut a purely Malthusian policy has never created value in the long termThe prospects look better at European levelSocrates in the Meno queries a young slaveEurope out of the larger bubble of credit historyThe tax expense in the PLF 2011 thus stood at EUR 2The European debt crisis is poised to enter a new phase at high riskThe latter is already among the thirteen major economies of the worldA wind of optimism on the Germany. In their spring report, published yesterday, six major German economic institutes have strongly revised upward their forecasts for German growth in 2006. The GDP of the first euro-zone economy, they argue, growth of 1.8 this year and not of 1.2, as it had found in the fall. A frank resumed activity, according to them, which should enable the public deficit to come back, for the first time since 2001, fateful below 3 of GDP, as required, in principle, the European stability pact.
"The German economy is in the spring of 2006 in a phase of growth," said Eckhardt Wohlers of the HWWA Hamburg Institute. A widely shared sense, German. The Federal Government should raise its forecast for growth in 2006, also, today, from 1.4 to 1.6. The business community do not hide their satisfaction. Barometer of the IFO Institute measuring business morale has reached this month its highest level since 1991, the boom year after reunification! German firms continue to collect the export markets and begin to take advantage of rebooting the consumer and the German investment. The confidence of households became in April to its highest level for more than five years.
If the 6 institutes see their predictions come true, the Germany record in 2006 growth twice superior to that of 2005 (0.9) and its best economic performance since 2000. And would come back thanks to the European Commission, which has constantly pointing its "excessive deficit".
Debate on VAT
If it is confirmed, the return of German public finances this year, within the stability pact will not fail to restart debate German on the programmed increase, January 1, 2007, 3 points from 16 to 19, the main VAT rate. A measure to report 24 billion euros, which is to do so unanimously. Is this tax screw tower really essential, knowing that they will be a serious brake on activity
6 Institutes expect that growth of 1.2 in 2007 because of this budgetary austerity. "Next year, the situation will clearly lose its ranging from regret." Domestic demand will notably be held back by the transition to a much more restrictive fiscal policy. "Only consolation, expected the VAT increase will boost consumption this year, because the Germans will be, in their view, likely to anticipate their large purchases. A bonus of 0.2 point of growth, according to their calculations.
Flagship measure
For their part, 6 institutes, in line with the business community, do not hide their hostility to the recovery of VAT. "Higher taxes are the wrong way," they write in their report. Will they be listened by the Merkel Government Unlikely. Tuesday, the Minister of Finance (Social Democrat), Peer Steinbrück, still defended it flagship of the programme of the great coalition, holding that there was no alternative to consolidate public finances. Berlin table always on a deficit of 3.3 of GDP in 2006. And with this increase in VAT, it would return to 2.5 in 2007, according to the Government. And 2 of GDP, according to the 6 institutes. "In Germany judgments are always with a certain immoderation", warned this week, Peer Steinbrück. After having crushed the black over the years, his compatriots are now, according to him, things a bit "too pink".
