It was necessary to network all the skillsThe greatest collectors of the world comeIt doesn't matter if they lose most of the timeThe first based at Montdidier in the sum is already operationalSince midSeptember the stock markets mark way2 higher than the expectations of the marketIt is rightly that they are worried aboutAlan Mulally is not familiar the automobileFirm offers are expected Monday November 9My view was that should have been vendre asset buyingAlmost a year ago, the world economy to approach the disaster. In the space of three days, from 15 to September 17, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, AIG was taken over by the US Government and Merrill Lynch was absorbed by Bank of America in an agreement negotiated and financed by the US Government. Panic ensued and credit ceased to circulate. A recession appeared possible.
Since the storm broke. Taken by centrales banks emergency prevented financial markets from collapsing. When banks stopped provide liquidity in the short term to other banks and companies, central banks have filled the vacuum. The major economies have therefore avoided a collapse of credit and production. The feeling of panic has dissipated.
If the worst has been avoided, a great pain persists. The crisis culminated with a fall in the prices of the assets end of 2008. Extremely high oil and food prices have added pain, therefore, the slowdown of economic activity. Businesses could more to sell their production, which resulted in decreases in production and layoffs. The rising unemployment aggravated the loss of household wealth, established families in great danger economic and leads to further reductions in consumer spending.
The big problem today, is that the unemployment rate continues to rise in the United States and Europe, since growth is too slow to create enough new jobs. Turmoil is still felt throughout the world.
An important debate followed about so-called "incentive to expenditure" measures in the United States, Europe and China. These measures are based on the increase in domestic spending and tax incentives to offset the decline in the consumption of households and business investment.
The real effectiveness of these measures is controversial because they dig budget deficits and forced, at one time or another, to reduce spending or raise taxes. The question is whether if they will succeed in stimulating production and employment in the short term and, if it is the case, if they will be sufficient to offset inévitables fiscal problems that follow. The Chinese plan was, apparently, a first success. The fall of the Chinese imports to the United States was offset by a net increase of the Chinese Government in infrastructure.
In the United States, the verdict is less clear. Tax allowances were probably used to save rather than to consume. It has not yet had recourse to the announced spending in infrastructure, given the time needed to ensure that incentives become concrete construction projects.
It is almost certain that the third component - transfers to the State and local - is managed to maintain spending for schools, health and the unemployed. In short, there is no doubt that the American measures have had positive effects, but without decisive impact on the economy. In addition, concerns about the huge US budget deficit, which now amounts to 1,800 billion per year (12 of GDP), will surely intensify and thus create considerable uncertainty in politics and financial markets. The United States must begin by reducing the budget deficit and focus on new growth opportunities.
A year ago, in full aggravation, Barack Obama introduced the theme of the "green recovery", which is based on an increase in investment in renewable energy, new electric vehicles, energy efficient green buildings and agriculture without danger to the environment in his presidential campaign. In the heat of the battle against financial panic, political attention is diverted from this important idea. And it is now that the US must return. Consumers who are drowning in debt to the United States and Europe will limit their spending during the years to come, the time to rebuild their wealth and to rebuild capital retirement.
The economic slowdown resulting gives us an opportunity to single - and necessary - to offset low spending of the consommateurs by an increase in investment in sustainable technologies. Government policies in the United States and other wealthy countries should stimulate investment by special measures, including a system of trading greenhouse gas emissions; grants for research and development related to the sustainable technologies; guaranteed preferential prices and regulatory measures of encouragement for renewable energy; subsidies to consumers and other rewards for choosing new green technologies; or even the implementation of programs of environment friendly infrastructure, such transit mass. In addition, rich countries should offer the most pauvres countries of aid and loans at low interest rates for the acquisition of sustainable energy technologies, such as solar and geothermal.
The crisis may be the opportunity to turn the page of financial bubbles and excessive consumption to sustainable development. In fact, we must seize this chance because it is the only hope of genuine growth that we have.
